Currently, the average US purchase price of tilapia (5-7lbs) is $2.15/lb, and the unit price of imported squid is approaching $2.0/lb. The price of tilapia is almost the lowest in recent years, the price of squid is at a high level, and there is a tendency to accelerate. The price gap between the two is very close. American consumers have put forward higher quality requirements for imported seafood. In 2018, or a turning point, can Chinese tilapia beat the Vietnamese squid to make a beautiful turnaround?

From the data of the National Marine Fisheries Agency (NMFS) in previous years, the total amount of imported tilapia in the United States has experienced a decline for four consecutive years. Not only that, but from the purchase price of the United States, since 2014, tilapia Global market prices are falling every year.

In 2014, the United States imported 230,000 tons of tilapia and products, with a total value of 1.114 billion US dollars; in 2015, it dropped to 225,000 tons (-2.1%), valued at 980 million (-12%); in 2016, it fell again to 197,000 tons. (-12.4%), valued at 754 million (-23%). In the first half of 2017, only 8.8 million tons of tilapia were imported from the United States, valued at 333 million.

On the contrary, the volume of imported salmon imports has soared. In 2014, the United States imported 107,000 tons of squid and products, worth 347 million; in 2015, it was 114,000 tons (+6.5%), worth 351 million (+1.15%); in 2016 it was 137,000 tons (+20.2%), value 406 million (+14.8%); in the first half of 2017, it was 55,400 tons, worth 178 million.

Both belong to white meat fish. In the past four years, the market price of tilapia has fallen at a rate of about 15% per year, and the price of squid has increased by 10% per year. It is clear that squid has seized the market for tilapia in the past few years.

2017 is undoubtedly the most difficult year for the tilapia industry. The total import of tilapia in the United States is expected to be no more than 180,000 tons. China is the largest supplier of tilapia in the United States. Before 2013, China's tilapia's export market share was over 70%. After experiencing the low of global market prices, China’s market share to the US may fall to 60% this year.

The good days of the 2018 squid supplier have come to an end

As of August 2 this year, the import of American squid must be "compulsory re-examination" by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The power to regulate squid and its products has been officially handed over to the US Department of Agriculture by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The US Department of Agriculture requires suppliers and distributors to submit an inspection application form in advance before the goods arrive in the United States, and send the products directly to the designated address of their subordinate Food Safety Inspection Agency (FSIS) for inspection. Items examined include product certification, appearance, labeling, drug residues, microbial pathogens, and more.

The implementation of this decree means that importers and exporters need to bear more inspection costs, and the product stays longer. In the short term, there may be a shortage of catfish products, the cost will rise, and the price rise again is a big trend.

Strict inspection system or shrinking profits of Vietnamese squid companies have been commented that most of Vietnam's squid processing plants cannot meet US standards. If products are recalled, Vietnam must bear all losses. In 2018, the export of Vietnamese catfish will be very difficult.

Americans are willing to pay more for "responsible" seafood

A recent survey report (Cargill's Feed4Thought) shows that American consumers are more concerned about the safety of imported foods, preferring to spend more money on responsible and sustainable aquatic products.

The report originated from Cargill, one of the four largest grain companies in the United States. They conducted a survey among 1,000 Americans. The conclusion is that 72% of American consumers agree that eating more aquatic products is good for their health, but they are more concerned. The source of the seafood, whether the production method meets the “responsible” and “sustainable” standards. 88% of consumers are willing to pay more to buy reliable products, up to 93% among young Americans.

More than 90% of the seafood consumed by Americans comes from imports. The annual import volume (2015) is about 18.8 billion US dollars, and the annual consumption of shrimp products alone is 600,000 tons. The United States deserves to be the world's largest seafood import and export market, and it is still for a long time to come.

Since the second half of 2017, due to the implementation of the new policy of the US Department of Agriculture on the import of squid, the import game of tilapia and squid will enter a new stage. It can be expected that the restrictions on hard policies will lead to a decrease in the export of Vietnamese catfish and an increase in prices. The author believes that this may be a turning point for the Chinese tilapia aquaculture industry. The Chinese tilapia industry needs to seize the opportunity to keep up with changes in international policies and markets, apply for certification, build a brand to enhance "soft power", produce products that meet the needs of American consumers, and make a beautiful counterattack.